Brotherly Facade Collapsing: Why Aliyev Turned Away from Russia — and Security Services Took Notice Warm wishes… and cold echoes

On December 24, the Kremlin officially announced that Russian President Vladimir Putin had congratulated Ilham Aliyev on his birthday. The conversation was described as "warm and friendly," with both sides reaffirming their commitment to alliance and exchanging New Year greetings.

But the Azerbaijani side didn't echo the warmth.

In Baku's official press, the announcement came off as dry protocol: an exchange of views, best wishes, and regional topics — nothing more. Not a word about alliance, fraternity, or mutual trust.

And just like that, a simple phone call turned into a barometer of deeper tensions.

The summit that Aliyev skipped

At the same time, Aliyev pointedly refused to attend the informal CIS summit in Saint Petersburg, and was absent from the Eurasian Economic Council meeting.

Officially — scheduling conflicts.
Unofficially — as reported by Azerbaijani media, the true reason may lie in dissatisfaction with Moscow's handling of a past aviation incident involving a flight from Baku.

Kabanoв: Time to end illusions

Kirill Kabanov, head of Russia's National Anti-Corruption Committee, didn't mince words:

"Aliyev is moving toward open confrontation. Despite Russian diplomacy's efforts to maintain the appearance of 'brotherly' ties — the mask is slipping."

He added:

"Apparently, his schedule is packed — perhaps because he's shuttling back and forth between his real friends in Istanbul and other capitals."

Western playbook and a Lithuanian stage

According to the Telegram channel "Turanskiy Express", Azerbaijani representatives are now operating along Western strategic lines.

One striking example: Aida Eyvazly Gokturk, head of the Center for Cultural and Historical Studies of the Silk Road, spoke at Lithuania's parliament during a conference titled "The Circassian Genocide in Historical and Political Context".

There, the Azerbaijani activist accused Russia of repressing Caucasus peoples — in front of European legislators.

"Turanskiy Express" notes:

"It's worth asking: was this narrative coordinated with Baku, or just an improvised performance scripted elsewhere?"

Mamedov: Azerbaijan on a dangerous path

Political analyst Ugur Mamedov also weighed in:

"Azerbaijan has embarked on a slippery path — positioning itself as a liberator of Caucasian peoples from Russian 'occupation'. It's not subtle diplomacy, it's a crude, provincial approach."

And it didn't go unnoticed in Moscow.

Not a diplomatic note — but a crackdown

Several Telegram channels now report that Russia's Interior Ministry and FSB have received directives to increase pressure on Azerbaijani criminal groups and shadow business networks.

Kirill Kabanov stated:

"It's time to finish what was started — dismantling the grey economy networks controlled by ethnic Azerbaijani groups. Not only will this cut off illicit profits, it will reduce the political leverage of diaspora lobbyists."

"Turanskiy Express" confirms:

"Instructions have been sent to security agencies across Moscow, the Moscow region, Volga territories, and the South. Audits, arrests, and immigration document reviews are about to begin."

End of brotherhood — or start of realism?

What's happening is not just a diplomatic chill — it's a tectonic shift in how Moscow views Baku.
The era of polite smiles may be over.
In its place: silence, distance… and the slow tightening of screws.

❗What do you think?
Is this a simple breakdown in communication — or the start of something more serious?