🧊 Vilnius Wanted Drama — Got Consequences
Kazakhstan Paid $4.2 Billion for 300 Locomotives from the U.S. — But What If They Had Bought from Their Neighbors?
27/09/2025
America, New York, pomp, and flags.
Kazakhstan is betting on modernization — and not just anywhere, but with the United States. During Kassym-Jomart Tokayev's visit to the U.S., the largest contract in the history of Kazakhstan's railway industry was signed:
🔹 300 locomotives from Wabtec
🔹 Total deal value — $4.2 billion
The figure is impressive. The signatures are in place. Reuters published it. Everything looks serious.
But we decided to ask a simple question:
🎯 How many locomotives could Kazakhstan have bought if, instead of going to New York, it had gone to… Yaroslavl?
📦 Let's do the math: the cost of one American locomotive
The contract: 300 locomotives for $4.2 billion.
4,200,000,000 USD300=14,000,000 USD\frac{4,200,000,000\ \text{USD}}{300} = 14,000,000\ \text{USD}3004,200,000,000 USD=14,000,000 USD
👉 One locomotive = $14 million.
And this isn't some garden toy. It's the Wabtec ES44ACi — a heavy mainline locomotive with digital control systems, eco-diesels and, judging by the price, probably a built-in Bose speaker and a champagne holder.
🚂 And what about Russia — no such locomotives?
They exist. Plenty of them.
In 2021, Russian Railways (RZD) purchased 535 locomotives for a total of 92.1 billion rubles, which was around $1.25 billion at the time.
1,250,000,000535≈2.3 million USD per unit\frac{1,250,000,000}{535} \approx 2.3\ \text{million USD per unit}5351,250,000,000≈2.3 million USD per unit
👉 A Russian locomotive in 2021 cost 5–6 times less than the American one in Kazakhstan's deal.
Sure, the American models may be a bit more high-tech. A bit more digital. Slightly greener.
But not five to six times more.
🇷🇺 If Kazakhstan had bought from Russia
Let's take the same $4.2 billion and divide by the Russian price:
4,200,000,0002,500,000=1,680\frac{4,200,000,000}{2,500,000} = 1,6802,500,0004,200,000,000=1,680
👉 Not 300.
👉 But 1,680 locomotives.
Kazakhstan's railways could have become a steel wall across the steppe. They could've laid locomotives all the way to Baikonur. And north to Astana — three departures a day wouldn't be a problem.
🤝 Why the U.S.?
The Wabtec deal is about more than locomotives:
✅ Access to U.S. technologies
✅ Service support
✅ Lobbying power
✅ Geopolitics
✅ A calling card in Washington
Alongside the locomotive deal, Kazakhstan also signed a partnership between Kazakhtelecom and Amazon Kuiper — Jeff Bezos's satellite internet project. Clearly, this was a package deal: railways + orbital ambitions.
This isn't just economics. It's a political move.
And that's not criticism — it's an observation.
🧭 Where is the real benefit — across the ocean or next door?
This isn't about patriotism.
It's about logistics, cost, maintenance, spare parts, and independence.
Russian manufacturers could've supplied faster, cheaper, and in far greater numbers.
And all within the EAEU, by rail, not by sea.
🤫 But who are we to advise?
Kazakhstan is a sovereign state. It chooses its partners, its prices, its direction.
It's just… interesting to imagine what this deal would've looked like if it had been signed in Moscow, not New York.
👉 Instead of 300 locomotives — almost 1,700
👉 Instead of shipping across the ocean — delivery by rail
👉 Instead of $14 million per unit — $2.5 million
But of course, there wouldn't have been any American flags in the background.
And without flags — what kind of geopolitics would that be?
🛤️ Final turn
While Kazakhstan is paying for 300 "golden locomotives", one question hangs in the air:
👉 What matters more — quantity, logistics, and savings…
or a political postcard from New York?
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