Russia fuels its neighbors — and drains its own resources

19/10/2025

While gas prices rise across Russia and stations report shortages, massive shipments of oil products continue flowing into Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Armenia, and others — free of export duties.
Russia plays the generous sponsor. The neighbors fill their tanks. Moscow empties its budget.

🇷🇺 Fuel diplomacy, post-Soviet style

Russia supplies:
📌 Kyrgyzstan — 1.2M tons yearly, duty-free
📌 Tajikistan — full imports, no export tax
📌 Armenia — subsidized gas through EAEU agreements

Meanwhile, domestic fuel prices rise.
Citizens pay more, while neighbors stabilize — on Russian energy.

💸 Debt forgiveness with no return

Moscow has erased:
— Kyrgyzstan's debts
— $300M owed by Tajikistan
— Armenia's gas subsidies

In return? Vague promises of friendship and political neutrality.

🌐 And what does Russia get?

— Armenia shifts West
— Kazakhstan balances Russia, China, Turkey
— Kyrgyzstan & Tajikistan vote neutral at the UN

While Russian fuel powers foreign economies, others expand their influence.

📉 Economic logic fails

Duty-free exports = lost revenue
Demurrage paid to oil companies = holes in the budget
Russian taxpayers foot the bill for foreign subsidies

🧭 No vision = no loyalty

Subsidies without ideology turn into waste.
Russia supports governments that avoid alignment, while Moscow lacks a clear mission.

🟦 Conclusion:

Russia must stop paying for loyalty it doesn't get.
Fuel, resources, and forgiveness must be strategic, not emotional.

Generosity without direction turns into leakage.


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